Murphy USA (MUSA Quick QuoteMUSA - Free Report) and Casey’s General Stores (CASY Quick QuoteCASY - Free Report) are two of the most successful convenience store operators in the United States, but they follow very different strategies. Murphy USA is built around a high-volume, low-cost fuel retail model targeting value-conscious customers, while Casey’s focuses on a food-forward convenience model driven by prepared meals and a growing loyalty ecosystem.

Both companies have delivered strong recent results. For investors in the convenience retail sector, the key question is which stock offers the better opportunity today.

The Case for Murphy USA

Murphy USA has differentiated itself through an everyday low-price fuel strategy. The company operates more than 1,800 locations across 27 states and serves nearly 2 million customers daily, making fuel traffic the core driver of its business model.

First-quarter 2026 results underscored the strength of this approach. Net income rose to $136.3 million, or $7.28 per diluted share, compared with $53.2 million, or $2.63, in the prior-year quarter. Adjusted EBITDA increased to $277.9 million from $157.4 million.

A key driver was stronger fuel profitability. Total fuel contribution reached 35 cents per gallon compared with 25.4 cents a year earlier, lifting fuel contribution to $403.9 million from $287.3 million. This improvement reflected favorable supply dynamics and stronger market conditions.

The merchandise segment also showed steady improvement. Merchandise contribution increased 7.3% year over year to $210.2 million, supported by higher unit margins and continued growth in nicotine-related products.

Capital allocation remains another strength. Murphy USA repurchased about 169,000 shares for $70.9 million during the quarter while continuing dividend payments. Ongoing buybacks have consistently supported earnings per share growth.

Looking ahead, management plans to open 45 to 55 new stores in 2026, with 18 already under construction in early 2026. This controlled expansion should support volume growth while maintaining operating efficiency.

The Case for Casey’s

Casey’s operates a different model, where inside-store sales — particularly prepared food — play a larger role in profitability than fuel alone.

Fiscal third-quarter 2026 results highlighted this strength. Net income rose 49.3% year over year to $130.1 million, while earnings per share increased 66.2% to $4.37. EBITDA grew 27.5% to $308.9 million.

Inside sales remain the primary growth engine. Inside gross profit increased 8.9% to $624 million, while same-store inside sales rose 4%. Prepared food and beverage sales grew 4.3%, led by strong demand for pizzas and hot sandwiches.

Margins are a key advantage. Casey’s inside margin reached 42.2%, with prepared food and beverage margins at 58.3%, significantly higher than typical fuel retail margins. This mix helps create a more stable and diversified earnings base.

Fuel performance was also solid, with same-store gallons up 0.4% and fuel margin at 41 cents per gallon. Total fuel gross profit rose 15.3% year over year.

The company is also strengthening customer engagement. Casey’s Rewards program has surpassed 10 million members, improving retention and enabling more targeted promotions.

Scale supports the model as well, with roughly 2,900 stores across 19 states and about 800 million annual guest transactions.

Valuation and Growth Outlook

The two companies offer different investment profiles. Murphy USA is more leveraged to fuel margins and volume trends, while Casey’s benefits from a more balanced mix of fuel and high-margin food sales.

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MUSA trades at a forward 12-month P/E of 18.9X, compared with Casey’s at 41.8X, making the former significantly cheaper on earnings multiples.

From a growth perspective, Casey’s benefits from the continued expansion of its food business and loyalty ecosystem, which supports steady same-store sales growth. However, Murphy USA shows stronger near-term earnings momentum, driven by fuel profitability and operating leverage, assuming stable fuel conditions.

Price Performance

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Over the past three months, Murphy USA’s shares gained 24.2%, slightly trailing Casey’s, which advanced 25.1%. This indicates that Casey’s modestly outperformed Murphy USA during the period.

EPS Estimate Revisions

Analysts have turned more positive on Murphy USA over the past 60 days. Fiscal 2026 consensus estimates increased 26.65%, with 2027 estimates up 8.16%.

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In contrast, Casey's saw more modest revisions, with fiscal 2027 estimates up 4.09% and fiscal 2028 estimates up 6.43%, reflecting a steadier but less pronounced improvement in earnings expectations.

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Which Stock Is the Better Buy Now?

Both companies are well-run operators with strong execution and expanding footprints. Casey’s stands out for its differentiated food platform, strong loyalty program and diversified profit mix, which together create a durable long-term retail franchise.

However, Murphy USA appears more attractive in the near term. It is delivering stronger earnings growth, benefiting from favorable fuel contribution trends, improving merchandise margins and active share repurchases. It also carries a stronger analyst momentum profile and a lower valuation multiple. Notably, both Murphy USA and Casey's currently carry a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), reflecting favorable earnings outlooks. However, Murphy USA's stronger estimate revisions, lower valuation and superior near-term earnings momentum make it the more compelling buy for investors seeking a combination of value and growth. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.